the harvard law democrats

Hey GOP: Virginia Should Worry You

Following up on Alexander's great post about LA and MA elections and armed with new data from VA, I think it's safe to say that the '07 elections are good news for Democrats in 2008.

Democrats took control of the Virginia State Senate last Tuesday, continuing the Donkey dominance in the Old Dominion State. Ever since HLS Alum Mark Warner took the Governor's seat in 2001, Democrats have won consistently in VA, gaining seats in the 2003 state midterms, holding the Governor's mansion in 2005 (with another HLS Alum, Tim Kaine), and knocking off George "Macaca" Allen in the 2006 Senate Race. Warner is expected to cruise to victory in the 2008 Senate race, completing the sweep.

OK, it hasn't quite been a sweep. After all, George W. Bush won VA's 13 electoral votes in 2004, beating John Kerry by a 54 percent to 45 percent margin. But there was even some good news in that defeat. Kerry won populous Fairfax County in Northern VA, the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon Johnson. And with Northern VA growing significantly faster than the rest of the state, it seemed plausible in 2004 that VA could become a reddish-purple state in the 2008 election.

Well, that prediction may have been too pessimistic. A recent Survey USA poll shows Hillary Clinton leading all of her potential Republican opponents in VA. With the uber-popular Warner on the ballot and the possibility of Senator Jim Webb being in the second slot, it's safe to say that VA will be a pure swing state in 2008.

What does that mean for the Democratic nominee? Well, it means that we could lose Ohio and Florida, and still win the presidency. If the Dem nominee won all the states that Kerry won + New Mexico or Iowa (both of which Gore won) + Virginia, then we'd have a Democratic president. And for those of us who harbor lifelong bitterness at Florida and Ohio based on the last two elections, it'd be nice to win the White House without rewarding those two with more time in the spotlight.

Posted by Jon Berkon on November 14, 2007 10:28 AM |

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