Virginia is a symptom of GOP woes, not a Dem solution
Jon is absolutely right to draw attention to Virginia and to suggest that the GOP should be concerned by the election results there, but I think he's drawing the wrong conclusion. Although there has unquestionably been a partial shift in the demographical and political balance of power from Richmond and the Tidewater up to Northern Virginia, and the latter region has turned increasingly blue, the transformation has not yet reached the point where Virginia can supplant Ohio and Florida as the swing state. Virginia may be in play in 2008, but only in the event that the Democrat wins a substantial victory.
Tim Kaine won the 2005 Gubernatorial election because he ran a better campaign and was a better candidate than Republican Jerry Kilgore. While Kaine won, Republicans won narrow victories in the lower-interest, lower-information Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General races. These contests had the characteristics of a generic party ID, and the Republican victories (in the face of a Tim Kaine headwind) show that as of 2005, the state was clearly more red than blue. Jim Webb's win in 2006 had more to do with George Allen's implosion than it had to do with Virginia.
It's tempting to say that the Democrats' conquest of the Virginia Senate (the House of Delegates remains securely in Republican hands) is conclusive evidence of the state's new purpleness. But this ignores the fact that red states such as North Carolina and Alabama have Democratic majorities in both houses of the state legislature and Democrats hold one house in many other red states . Furthermore, the 2007 gains had less to do with a general blue-ing of the state and more to do with the (a) the awful national climate for Republicans and (b) the extremism of the Virginia GOP. Wacko Republicans who said mental illness is linked to demonic possession and called for the end of government involvement in education lost races in red districts. If the Republicans had run rational human beings in those races, they would still control the Senate. Sen. John Warner ripped his own party after the election for its far-rightward tilt and abandonment of moderates.
Barring scandal or his withdrawal from the race, Mark Warner will be elected to the Senate in 2008. But this has more to do with his popularity than it does with any broader trends in Virginia. Certainly his place on the ballot will help other Democrats running in 2008 (perhaps most notably in the 11th CD, which will be very competitive if Tom Davis retires from Congress), but it's not clear how much of a boost that would give to the top of the ticket.
As the Clinton poll numbers show, Virginia might be in play in 2008, which is great news for Democrats. But Survey USA polls also show Clinton with bigger leads in Florida and leading in states like Missouri. If we see that shifting demographics is only a relatively small piece of Virginia's story, we see that the trends that are at work in Virginia are at work in many other states. Thus, Virginia is a symptom of what could be a Republican cataclysm, not a new battleground.
Copyright 2004-2007 Harvard Law School Democrats.

Comments (70)
You can get Speed Reducer,Box Speed Reducer Motor
Posted by Speed Reducer | January 14, 2009 2:50 AM
Posted on January 14, 2009 02:50
green laser, green laser sight, tactical green laser
Posted by green laser | January 14, 2009 4:05 AM
Posted on January 14, 2009 04:05
You can get Speed Reducer,Box Speed Reducer Motor
Posted by Speed Reducer | February 20, 2009 1:44 AM
Posted on February 20, 2009 01:44
You can get Speed Reducer,Box Speed Reducer Motor
Posted by Speed Reducer | February 23, 2009 12:49 AM
Posted on February 23, 2009 00:49
The pneumatic cylinder manufacturers catalog, pneumatic cylinder supplier from here, pneumatic cylinderne
Posted by pneumatic cylinder | February 23, 2009 1:11 AM
Posted on February 23, 2009 01:11
The pneumatic cylinder manufacturers catalog, pneumatic cylinder supplier from here, pneumatic cylinderne
Posted by pneumatic cylinder | February 23, 2009 1:13 AM
Posted on February 23, 2009 01:13
The pneumatic cylinder manufacturers catalog, pneumatic cylinder supplier from here, pneumatic cylinderne
Posted by pneumatic cylinder | February 23, 2009 1:13 AM
Posted on February 23, 2009 01:13
http://wowgoldshopping.blogspot.com/
Posted by wow gold | February 23, 2009 2:54 AM
Posted on February 23, 2009 02:54
http://wowgoldshopping.blogspot.com/
Posted by wow gold | February 23, 2009 2:55 AM
Posted on February 23, 2009 02:55
The pneumatic cylinder manufacturers catalog, pneumatic cylinder supplier from here, pneumatic cylinderne
Posted by pneumatic cylinder | February 24, 2009 10:43 PM
Posted on February 24, 2009 22:43
The pneumatic cylinder manufacturers catalog, pneumatic cylinder supplier from here, pneumatic cylinderne
Posted by pneumatic cylinder | February 24, 2009 10:44 PM
Posted on February 24, 2009 22:44
The pneumatic cylinder manufacturers catalog, pneumatic cylinder supplier from here, pneumatic cylinderne
Posted by pneumatic cylinder | February 24, 2009 10:47 PM
Posted on February 24, 2009 22:47
Online shopping for silk scarves Apparel
Posted by silk scarve | February 26, 2009 10:24 PM
Posted on February 26, 2009 22:24
Online shopping for silk scarves Apparel
Posted by silk scarve | February 26, 2009 10:25 PM
Posted on February 26, 2009 22:25
Online shopping for silk scarves Apparel
Posted by silk scarve | February 26, 2009 10:29 PM
Posted on February 26, 2009 22:29
Online shopping for silk scarves Apparel
Posted by silk scarve | February 26, 2009 10:30 PM
Posted on February 26, 2009 22:30
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 1, 2009 8:08 PM
Posted on March 1, 2009 20:08
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 1, 2009 8:13 PM
Posted on March 1, 2009 20:13
Online shopping for silk scarves Apparel
Posted by silk scarve | March 2, 2009 10:09 PM
Posted on March 2, 2009 22:09
Online shopping for silk scarves Apparel
Posted by silk scarve | March 2, 2009 10:10 PM
Posted on March 2, 2009 22:10
Online shopping for silk scarves Apparel
Posted by silk scarve | March 2, 2009 10:11 PM
Posted on March 2, 2009 22:11
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 2, 2009 10:19 PM
Posted on March 2, 2009 22:19
products include power inverter,one stop shop for power inverter
Posted by power inverter | March 2, 2009 10:27 PM
Posted on March 2, 2009 22:27
products include power inverter,one stop shop for power inverter
Posted by power inverter | March 2, 2009 10:29 PM
Posted on March 2, 2009 22:29
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 5, 2009 1:50 AM
Posted on March 5, 2009 01:50
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 5, 2009 1:52 AM
Posted on March 5, 2009 01:52
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 10, 2009 4:07 AM
Posted on March 10, 2009 04:07
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 10, 2009 4:12 AM
Posted on March 10, 2009 04:12
Packing machine sourcing update: Increased automation sharpens edge
Posted by Packing machine | March 11, 2009 2:27 AM
Posted on March 11, 2009 02:27
Packing machine sourcing update: Increased automation sharpens edge
Posted by Packing machine | March 11, 2009 2:28 AM
Posted on March 11, 2009 02:28
Packing machine sourcing update: Increased automation sharpens edge
Posted by Packing machine | March 11, 2009 2:29 AM
Posted on March 11, 2009 02:29
Packing machine sourcing update: Increased automation sharpens edge
Posted by Packing machine | March 13, 2009 2:28 AM
Posted on March 13, 2009 02:28
Packing machine sourcing update: Increased automation sharpens edge
Posted by Packing machine | March 13, 2009 2:30 AM
Posted on March 13, 2009 02:30
We have a broad range of filter cloth products and filter cloth services,
Posted by filter cloth | March 13, 2009 3:01 AM
Posted on March 13, 2009 03:01
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 17, 2009 10:05 PM
Posted on March 17, 2009 22:05
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 17, 2009 10:08 PM
Posted on March 17, 2009 22:08
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 17, 2009 10:10 PM
Posted on March 17, 2009 22:10
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 17, 2009 10:10 PM
Posted on March 17, 2009 22:10
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 17, 2009 10:14 PM
Posted on March 17, 2009 22:14
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 19, 2009 8:28 AM
Posted on March 19, 2009 08:28
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 19, 2009 8:30 AM
Posted on March 19, 2009 08:30
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 19, 2009 8:34 AM
Posted on March 19, 2009 08:34
Every day what I want is to get more wow gold, cheap wow gold, wow gold is very important for our wow player, so we need wow gold
Posted by wow gold | March 19, 2009 8:35 AM
Posted on March 19, 2009 08:35
embroidery machine, embroidery machine, embroidery machine
Posted by embroidery machine | March 23, 2009 3:27 AM
Posted on March 23, 2009 03:27
embroidery machine, embroidery machine, embroidery machine
Posted by embroidery machine | March 24, 2009 11:25 PM
Posted on March 24, 2009 23:25
embroidery machine, embroidery machine, embroidery machine
Posted by embroidery machine | March 24, 2009 11:26 PM
Posted on March 24, 2009 23:26
How does a computer's uninterruptible power supply work?
Posted by uninterruptible power supply | March 26, 2009 2:04 AM
Posted on March 26, 2009 02:04
How does a computer's uninterruptible power supply work?
Posted by uninterruptible power supply | March 26, 2009 2:06 AM
Posted on March 26, 2009 02:06
How does a computer's uninterruptible power supply work?
Posted by uninterruptible power supply | March 26, 2009 2:07 AM
Posted on March 26, 2009 02:07
We have a broad range of filter cloth products
Posted by filter clot | March 26, 2009 2:11 AM
Posted on March 26, 2009 02:11
We have a broad range of filter cloth products
Posted by filter clot | March 26, 2009 2:11 AM
Posted on March 26, 2009 02:11
flex banner, flex banner factory, you can find flex banner here
Posted by flex banner | March 26, 2009 2:14 AM
Posted on March 26, 2009 02:14
stainless steel wire mesh. stainless steel wire mesh
Posted by stainless steel wire mesh | March 27, 2009 3:44 AM
Posted on March 27, 2009 03:44
stainless steel wire mesh. stainless steel wire mesh
Posted by stainless steel wire mesh | March 27, 2009 3:49 AM
Posted on March 27, 2009 03:49
weight loss pills ,
Posted by medunivers | April 9, 2009 5:54 PM
Posted on April 9, 2009 17:54
packing machine manufacturer. packing machine manufacturer in china
Posted by packing machine manufacturer | April 14, 2009 3:26 AM
Posted on April 14, 2009 03:26
stainless steel wire mesh. stainless steel wire mesh
Posted by stainless steel wire mesh | April 15, 2009 9:23 PM
Posted on April 15, 2009 21:23
stainless steel wire mesh. stainless steel wire mesh
Posted by stainless steel wire mesh | April 15, 2009 9:24 PM
Posted on April 15, 2009 21:24
Find Pressure gauge on GlobalSpec by specifications. Pressure gauge are used
Posted by Pressure gauge | April 16, 2009 9:54 PM
Posted on April 16, 2009 21:54
Find Pressure gauge on GlobalSpec by specifications. Pressure gauge are used
Posted by Pressure gauge | April 16, 2009 9:56 PM
Posted on April 16, 2009 21:56
Find Pressure gauge on GlobalSpec by specifications. Pressure gauge are used
Posted by Pressure gauge | April 16, 2009 9:57 PM
Posted on April 16, 2009 21:57
In the market for a new kitchen faucet? Your choices for a kitchen faucet are more interesting
Posted by kitchen faucet | April 16, 2009 10:04 PM
Posted on April 16, 2009 22:04
Also view fuel dispenser products and fuel dispenser,fuel dispenser. Posted by kitchen faucet
Posted by fuel dispenser | April 16, 2009 10:15 PM
Posted on April 16, 2009 22:15
FI compact earth leakage circuit breaker detect and interrupt
Posted by earth leakage circuit breaker | April 21, 2009 9:10 PM
Posted on April 21, 2009 21:10
FI compact earth leakage circuit breaker detect
Posted by earth leakage circuit breaker | April 22, 2009 1:53 AM
Posted on April 22, 2009 01:53
sialic acid storage disease is an inherited disorder that primarily affects the nervous system.bronze valve,Edit | Delete
Posted by sialic acid | April 22, 2009 2:02 AM
Posted on April 22, 2009 02:02
Aluminium foil,Aluminium foil, Aluminium foilsupplier,Aluminium foil provider
Posted by Aluminium foil | April 26, 2009 8:39 PM
Posted on April 26, 2009 20:39
Thanks for posting this article. I'm decidedly frustrated with struggling to search out germane and intelligent commentary on this issue. Everybody nowadays goes to the very far extremes to either drive home their viewpoint that either: everyone else in the planet is wrong, or two that everyone but them does not really understand the situation. Many thanks for your concise, applicable insight.
Posted by Air rowing machine | December 18, 2009 10:26 PM
Posted on December 18, 2009 22:26
Will there be any unwanted side effects?
Posted by Quentin Foy | January 20, 2010 3:27 AM
Posted on January 20, 2010 03:27
Arrg, my mouse got jammed. What I was about to say, was that this is a terrific post. Very insightful and informative at the same time.
Posted by ways to earn extra money | February 20, 2010 5:37 AM
Posted on February 20, 2010 05:37