http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/ en-US Copyright 2008 Mon, 19 Nov 2007 18:46:58 -0500 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss presidential poll in VA. Basically, the race is very close if Giuliani is the nominee, while McCain leads and Romney trails. ]]> http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/11/va_followup.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/11/va_followup.php Blog Mon, 19 Nov 2007 18:46:58 -0500 faster than the country is as a whole. The easiest way to analyze this is to examine the relationship between the national presidential vote and the VA presidential vote. In 1988, VA was 13 pts more Republican than the nation as a whole; in 1992 and 1996 VA was 10 pts more Republican; in 2000, it was 9 pts; and finally, in 2004, it was 6 pts. My guess is that VA is probably about 2 to 3 pts more Republican than the nation as a whole today. When a state starts edging into the 2 to 3 pt zone, I think it can safely be called a swing state. Thus, while Tyler is right that Democrats probably wouldn't win VA if it lost nationally by 3 pts, it's probably also true that they won't win OH or FL in such circumstances. Second, Tyler's analogy to southern states like North Carolina and Alabama is not particularly helpful. He is right that many southern states have remained Democratic at a state level (Mississippi is another example). But Virginia did not remain Democratic at a state level; it became a strong Republican bastion and is now returning to Democratic control. These other states never turned red on a state level. It would be wrong, therefore, to attribute the success of Virginia Democrats to ancestral ties. Third, I'd be more willing to buy Tyler's "it's not the party, it's the candidate" theory if he used it to explain one election. But he is using it to explain every recent VA election. When Tim Kaine was trailing throughout much of 2005, I didn't hear Democrats, or the press, calling him a particularly strong candidate. It was only when he won did we hear about his deftness in using his religion to blunt GOP attacks on "values" issues. In fact, Kaine ran behind Warner's '01 performance in the socially conservative areas of the state; he made up for that gap by crushing Kilgore in the DC suburbs. And that campaign was classic Dem v. GOP fare: Kaine running on education and transportation, Kilgore running on immigration and cultural issues. It was the Democratic brand, not Kaine himself, that allowed him to prevail. ]]> http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/11/still_bullish_on_va.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/11/still_bullish_on_va.php Blog Wed, 14 Nov 2007 15:30:39 -0500 red states such as North Carolina and Alabama have Democratic majorities in both houses of the state legislature and Democrats hold one house in many other red states . Furthermore, the 2007 gains had less to do with a general blue-ing of the state and more to do with the (a) the awful national climate for Republicans and (b) the extremism of the Virginia GOP. Wacko Republicans who said mental illness is linked to demonic possession and called for the end of government involvement in education lost races in red districts. If the Republicans had run rational human beings in those races, they would still control the Senate. Sen. John Warner ripped his own party after the election for its far-rightward tilt and abandonment of moderates. Barring scandal or his withdrawal from the race, Mark Warner will be elected to the Senate in 2008. But this has more to do with his popularity than it does with any broader trends in Virginia. Certainly his place on the ballot will help other Democrats running in 2008 (perhaps most notably in the 11th CD, which will be very competitive if Tom Davis retires from Congress), but it's not clear how much of a boost that would give to the top of the ticket. As the Clinton poll numbers show, Virginia might be in play in 2008, which is great news for Democrats. But Survey USA polls also show Clinton with bigger leads in Florida and leading in states like Missouri. If we see that shifting demographics is only a relatively small piece of Virginia's story, we see that the trends that are at work in Virginia are at work in many other states. Thus, Virginia is a symptom of what could be a Republican cataclysm, not a new battleground. ]]> http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/11/virginia_is_a_symptom_of_gop_w.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/11/virginia_is_a_symptom_of_gop_w.php Blog Wed, 14 Nov 2007 14:54:28 -0500 good news for Democrats in 2008. Democrats took control of the Virginia State Senate last Tuesday, continuing the Donkey dominance in the Old Dominion State. Ever since HLS Alum Mark Warner took the Governor's seat in 2001, Democrats have won consistently in VA, gaining seats in the 2003 state midterms, holding the Governor's mansion in 2005 (with another HLS Alum, Tim Kaine), and knocking off George "Macaca" Allen in the 2006 Senate Race. Warner is expected to cruise to victory in the 2008 Senate race, completing the sweep. OK, it hasn't quite been a sweep. After all, George W. Bush won VA's 13 electoral votes in 2004, beating John Kerry by a 54 percent to 45 percent margin. But there was even some good news in that defeat. Kerry won populous Fairfax County in Northern VA, the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon Johnson. And with Northern VA growing significantly faster than the rest of the state, it seemed plausible in 2004 that VA could become a reddish-purple state in the 2008 election. Well, that prediction may have been too pessimistic. A recent Survey USA poll shows Hillary Clinton leading all of her potential Republican opponents in VA. With the uber-popular Warner on the ballot and the possibility of Senator Jim Webb being in the second slot, it's safe to say that VA will be a pure swing state in 2008. What does that mean for the Democratic nominee? Well, it means that we could lose Ohio and Florida, and still win the presidency. If the Dem nominee won all the states that Kerry won + New Mexico or Iowa (both of which Gore won) + Virginia, then we'd have a Democratic president. And for those of us who harbor lifelong bitterness at Florida and Ohio based on the last two elections, it'd be nice to win the White House without rewarding those two with more time in the spotlight. ]]> http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/11/hey_gop_virginia_should_worry.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/11/hey_gop_virginia_should_worry.php Blog Wed, 14 Nov 2007 10:28:43 -0500 By Alexander Chester A Republican governor sweeps to power in Louisiana and a Democrat with name recognition struggles to win a Congressional election in Massachusetts. What happened to that Democratic shift from 2006? Is this a trend that should have the party worrying as we approach 2008? Let's start with Louisiana, where Republicans try to blame Katrina on local officials, which included a Democratic mayor and governor, while Democrats try to nationalize the blame game, pinning it on the Bush administration. I don't think the fundamental consequence of Katrina is which party is to be blamed, but a more basic one: Thousands of Louisianans have yet to return to their homes. Most of these people are African-Americans and Democrats. The most significant political consequence of Katrina in Louisiana is that it will further shift the party to the GOP because it has flushed out many Democratic voters. A state that went for Clinton in 1996 (52-40) and then for Bush in successive elections by increasing margins (2000: 53-45, 2004: 57-42) is not going to be in play in 2008 regardless of who the parties nominate. I think Katrina makes this more assured, but I don't think it has a large effect. The reality is that racial dividing lines have made the Deep South more monolithic over the last two decades, and that won't abate. This is also an argument against John Edwards in the primary campaign, because I don't think he'll have any better luck flipping the Deep South than Obama or Hillary (neither of whom have any shot at doing so whatsoever). Where Democrats have a real shot in 2008 is on the border states, such as Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, and (maybe even) Oklahoma. Obviously this depends on who the candidates are. (And who the veep choices are; I think Mark Warner will bring Virginia, while Jim Webb -- a long shot VP nod for Obama -- could also help swing that state.) I don't see any significance in the recent Louisiana vote that should have any effect on any of this. In Massachusetts, on the other hand, a lot of people are pointing towards the issue of illegal immigration as one that still holds sway among voters who might lean GOP. But I think there is at least an equal if not greater counterbalance of Hispanic voters who would vote for Democrats because of the issue, especially in swing states like Florida, Michigan, and New Mexico. My hunch -- and I haven't really done any research to bear this out -- is that in special elections the challenger is going to be more highly motivated, and so even though Tsongas outspent Ogonowski four to one, Ogonowski's campaign was probably more fired up. Also, this isn't exactly the bluest of Massachusetts' districts. Mitt Romney carried it outright and Deval Patrick eked by with just 51% of the fightin' fifth. The GOP tried to make illegal immigration a huge issue nationwide in 2006, and they still lost in a landslide. I'm not too worried by the results of the Massachusetts election. If the GOP is going to win in 2008 -- and I don't think this is nearly as unlikely as many others do -- it's not because they can take solace in some kind of trends emerging from the recent elections in Louisiana and Massachusetts. http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/10/hey_gop_dont_start_celebrating.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/10/hey_gop_dont_start_celebrating.php Blog Wed, 31 Oct 2007 10:06:56 -0500 Welcome back to Crimson Blues, the official blog of the HLS Democrats. We've taken a bit of a hiatus since last spring, but we're back with a whole new team of bloggers. Please feel free to stop by, comment, or if you want, join the blogging team. E-mail jberkon@law.harvard.edu if you're interested. Our first question will be: what is the long term significance of the two recent elections--the special House election next door in MA-5, won narrowly by Democrat Niki Tsongas, and the Governor's race in LA, won handily by Republican Bobby Jindal? http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/10/question_1_what_is_the_signifi.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/10/question_1_what_is_the_signifi.php Blog Wed, 31 Oct 2007 10:03:07 -0500 By Cari Almo HLS for Obama is a vibrant organization with a growing membership and an ambitious agenda for the summer and fall. We support Barack because he is a progressive who understands that we can only solve America's problems by changing our politics and reducing the partisanship that paralyzes Washington. More than any candidate in our lifetime, Barack inspires people to get involved in the political process and demand change from their leaders. More than 300 students (nearly 20 percent of the student body!) belong to HLS for Obama. This spring, we raised nearly $6,000 for a Boston area fundraiser in April; we hosted a launch event with Professors Tribe and Ogletree that packed Pound Hall; we sent volunteers to campaign events in New Hampshire and Massachusetts; and we performed a number of research tasks for the campaign. We want to work with HLS alumni in our efforts to make Barack our next President. Alumni can help us raise money, conduct research, and talk to voters in early primary states. And we're always interested in hearing ideas from alumni on how HLS for Obama can be most effective. If you are interested in joining the HLS for Obama Alumni mailing list, please e-mail Cari Almo (calmo@law.harvard.edu). http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/2008_student_groups_hls_for_ob.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/2008_student_groups_hls_for_ob.php Blog Tue, 24 Apr 2007 12:03:07 -0500 By Tyler Rosen HLS for Edwards officially launched on April 19th with a happy hour at Tommy Doyle's, a bar in Cambridge. We were joined by Cate Edwards, HLS '09, and the campaign's National Volunteer Director. The group already has an active Facebook page of students who believe Americans deserve the equal opportunity to succeed and be heard. In the fall, we will travel to New Hampshire to share Sen. Edwards's commitment to building One America with voters and do phonebanking, fundraising and social events on campus. To get involved, e-mail trosen@law.harvard.edu. http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/2008_student_groups_hls_for_ed.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/2008_student_groups_hls_for_ed.php Blog Tue, 24 Apr 2007 11:57:20 -0500 By Pamela Foohey HLS for Hillary is an organization of Harvard Law students committed to providing opportunities for HLS students and alumni interested to get involved in Senator Hillary Clinton's 2008 Presidential campaign. We have two primary aims: 1) to organize and encourage volunteers interested in providing support on the campaign trail across the country, and 2) to provide a forum for HLS students to learn about Senator Clinton and the 2008 Presidential primaries and election. Senator Clinton is a dynamic national leader with sense and foresight who has proven her devotion to public service. After eight years of incompetence, it is crucial that we bring competence back to the White House. We support Hillary Clinton because she has the breadth and depth of experience, and the vision for and confidence in our country that we need. HLS for Hillary is proud to be able to organize HLS students and alumni on her behalf. For more information, please email Pamela Foohey at pfoohey@law.harvard.edu. http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/2008_student_groups_hls_for_cl.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/2008_student_groups_hls_for_cl.php Blog Tue, 24 Apr 2007 11:56:07 -0500 Announcing: 2007-2008 HLS Democrats Executive Board Co-Presidents: Rich Eisenberg, Tyler Rosen VP Speakers: Joey Wender VP Social Events: Sean McDonnell VP Community Events: Candice Plotkin VP Campaigns: Shonu Gandhi Alumni Director: Spencer Hawes Secretary: Juan Valdivieso Treasurer: Cate Edwards ]]> http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/new_executive_board.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/new_executive_board.php Blog Wed, 11 Apr 2007 19:42:11 -0500 HLS Democrats Officer Elections WHEN: Wednesday, April 11, 6 pm (Our elections will end before the 7 pm ACS elections) LOCATION: Austin North WHAT ELSE: Free Pizza (and lots of it) The HLS Democrats will hold elections for its 2007-2008 Executive Board on Wednesday, April 11 at 6 pm. The rules for filing for office and descriptions of the positions are available below. AVAILABLE ELECTED POSITIONS: Co-President; Vice President of Speakers; Vice President of Social Events and Outreach; Vice President of Campaigns; Alumni Director; Secretary; Treasurer. Elections will be held in that order. HOW TO RUN FOR OFFICE: To be a candidate, students must formally file for office by Monday, April 9 at 6 pm. To do so, email (outgoing) co-Presidents Dan Geldon (dgeldon@law) and Laura Seaton (lseaton@law) with: your contact information; the position you're running for; and a candidacy statement no longer than 200 words. Co-President candidates must file together. The organization will send out candidacy statements prior to the election. Students may file for only one position, but losing candidates can drop-down to run for other positions (see the order of elections above). We encourage you to email Dan and Laura with any questions about the process or individual positions. POSITION DESCRIPTIONS: Co-President: The Co-Presidents of the HLS Democrats, in collaboration with the Executive Board, are responsible for determining and executing the group's agenda for the year, and ensuring that the members of the Board are effectively carrying out their responsibilities. The buck stops with the Co-Presidents to ensure that the HLS Democrats have a vibrant presence on campus and fulfill the organization's mission and goals for its members. Vice President of Campaigns: The HLS Democrats play a key role in connecting current students with campaign related opportunities beyond Harvard's borders. This board member is in charge of organizing HLS students' involvements in campaigns, voter protection work, and other opportunities off-campus. In terms of campaign work, the VP of Campaigns is responsible for coordinating the HLS Democrats' involvement in local, state, and national campaigns and for appointing individual students to head up specific candidate-related efforts when appropriate. He or she also will plan related events such as campaign trainings. Vice President of Speakers: The VP of Speakers is responsible for organizing speaker events on campus. This can include anything from small brownbag lunches with professors to larger events with elected officials. The VP of Speakers is a combination of two current board positions - VP of Policy and VP of Careers. As such, the VP of Speakers will focus on organizing policy events on campus and bringing speakers to discuss various career paths available for HLS students. Vice President of Social Events and Outreach: A key goal of the HLS Democrats is to establish a vibrant community of Democrats here at HLS, and this board member is responsible for achieving this goal. Specifically, this includes the following important functions: 1) strengthening the community of those who are involved in the HLS Democrats, through general social and other events as well; 2) identifying individuals who are interested in politics or government in some capacity but have not become involved actively in the club, and bringing them into the community of Democrats through social and other events; and 3) creating and maintaining relationships - in part by co-sponsoring events - between the HLS Democrats and other campus organizations, to broaden our membership and increase its diversity. Alumni Director: This year, the HLS Democrats launched a formal Alumni Association. Its goal is to connect current students with alumni who work in law, politics, and other fields across the country. The Alumni Relations Director is responsible for overseeing the development of the HLS Democrats Alumni Association. This includes list building, sending regular newsletters to alumni, and planning events with HLS alumni. Secretary: The HLS Democrats Secretary serves as the organization's communications director, publicity coordinator, and record-keeper/historian. Responsibilities include maintaining the group's email list (which includes telephone numbers, interests, and other information); coordinating efforts to publicize our events; recruiting and overseeing a team of 1L Section Reps who publicize events in their sections; ensuring that pictures are taken and articles are written about our events and included in the HLS Record, on the HLS web site, and in other media; overseeing our webmaster and web site; maintaining electronic and paper files, pictures, and other materials for institutional memory purposes; keeping a record of all events, as necessary, for the Dean of Students office; and, if there is interest, overseeing efforts to create a presence through letters to the editor. Treasurer: The HLS Democrats Treasurer is responsible for helping to write and manage the budget of the HLS Democrats, as well as for coordinating the reimbursement process for all expenditures made in connection with HLS Democrats' events. Each spring, the Treasurer, in conjunction with the Co-Presidents, devises a funding request to be submitted to the Dean of Students Office for review by the Student Funding Board. Once funding is allocated to the HLS Democrats, the Treasurer helps put together a budget and maintain that budget. The Treasurer is also be responsible for signing reimbursement forms and ensuring that HLS students and others that lay out expenditures for events are reimbursed in a timely fashion.]]> http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/20072008_officer_elections.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/20072008_officer_elections.php Blog Mon, 02 Apr 2007 11:40:19 -0500 So You Think You May Want to Run for Office or Run a Campaign? Session II: "Lightning tour of Message, Field, Press, and Money" TRAINER: HLS 1L Tyler Rosen TIME: April 4, 2007. 7-9 pm. (Each training will be broken into 30 minutes, so please feel free to come late or leave early.) ROOM: Hauser 105 Tyler worked as a field director, press secretary and deputy manager on four campaigns and consulted on many more. This training offers more detail on four areas that are essential to a successful campaign, and that a candidate must fully understand to be successful. It's designed to quickly get you up to speed on the concepts and techniques that are fundamental to modern campaigns. This training should also be helpful to students who are looking to work on or manage a campaign following graduation. HLS Democrats Brownbag Lunch with Professor Philip Heymann "Investigating the White House" WHEN: Tuesday, April 10, 12:15 pm WHERE: Pound 108 Please join the HLS Democrats and Professor Philip Heymann as he discusses the implications and complications of investigations involving the Executive branch, from the U.S. Attorney firings to Watergate. Professor Heymann served as the No. 2-ranking Justice Department official during the Clinton administration and was an assistant to Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox during the Watergate investigation.]]> http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/upcoming_events_training_and_b.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/04/upcoming_events_training_and_b.php Blog Mon, 02 Apr 2007 11:35:20 -0500 Wednesday, Dan Geldon kicked off the HLS Democrats' "Think You Might Want to Run for Office or Manage a Campaign?" training program. His presentation on setting up a campaign was attended by nearly 30 students who are interested in being a candidate or manager. The training included an almost-overwhelming amount of information on everything from the initial legal steps in filing for office to choosing consultants to the different staff positions and responsibilities to common problems that develop in the management of a campaign. This training will be followed by a session of lightning trainings on four of the most important topics in campaigns. I'll be giving these talks--on Message, Field, Media and Money--on April 4. Finally, Rhode Island State Representative David Segal will visit on April 23 to relate his own experiences with being a young candidate and the process of running for office. http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/03/dems_launch_training_program.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/03/dems_launch_training_program.php Blog Mon, 26 Mar 2007 15:49:43 -0500 Look at the New Congress: What Lies Ahead on the Hill? Featuring: George Crawford, Nancy Pelosi's former Chief of Staff Date: Monday, March 19 Time: 5 pm Location: Pound 201 Sponsored by: King & Spalding and the HLS Democrats Join George Crawford, Nancy Pelosi's former Chief of Staff, along with members of King & Spalding's Government Relations Group, for a lively discussion addressing the new congressional leadership, its developing relationship with the Administration and the prospect for legislation in 2007-2008. So You Think You May Want to Run for Office or Run a Campaign? A Series of Trainings Sponsored by the HLS Democrats
This series of three trainings is designed to help Harvard students think about what it takes to run for office or run a campaign. The first session will provide an overview of the organizational structure of a campaign and give you a better idea of both how to set one up and who is responsible for what. The second will be a series of lightning seminars on the bread and butter parts of a campaign--Message Development; Field; Handling the Press; and Fundraising--that a candidate must understand to be successful. The third will provide a candid look at what it's like running for office and tips young candidates should keep in mind. We will have *free pizza* available at each of the trainings. Please contact Tyler Rosen (trosen@law.harvard.edu) with any questions. RSVPs to Tyler are not necessary but would be appreciated for planning purposes. Training I "Putting a campaign together" TIME: March 21, 2007. 7pm. LOCATION: Pound 100 This training will provide an overview of the campaign structure, how to set-up a campaign, and who is responsible for what in a campaign. If you don't know the difference between message consultants and communications staffers, or between researchers and policy staff, you should come to this training. ]]> http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/03/events_this_week.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/03/events_this_week.php Blog Sun, 18 Mar 2007 13:14:53 -0500 Sarbanes-Oxley Act requires that corporate officers of public companies certify that the financial reports of their companies don't "omit ... a material fact necessary in order to make the statements ... not misleading". The federal government, a public company of sorts with revenues of around $2.4 trillion, might run afoul of this standard, as suggested by a recent New York Times opinion by Steven Rattner. The problem is that the federal government presents its key financial data in a highly misleading way. By law, any business with revenues greater than $5 million must use accrual accounting. But the government uses cash accounting instead, which measures the amount of cash coming in and going out over a year, without considering promises made during that time to pay money in the future. In contrast, accrual accounting tries to match income and expenditures when the promise is made instead of when cash changes hands. Thus if I make a promise today to pay current employees a retirement benefit 30 years from now, I need to record that promise as a part of this year's budget. Cash accounting does not meet GAAP principles for two reasons: it fails to recognize revenue when it is realized (rather than collected), and it fails to match current revenues with future expenses (for example, recognizing a $50,000 zero-interest for two years home equity loan today without recognizing the need to start paying it off two years from now). For a debtor, cash accounting is wonderful since it allows you to disclose the bounty of today without directly acknowledging the bill that comes due in the future. For the federal government, the difference is huge. The federal deficit would be $450 billion - $200 billion larger if accrual accounting was used. But the number cited again and again for the budget deficit is $248 billion. This number ignores a host of all-to-real costs: pensions for government workers, future social security obligations, and future Medicare obligations. An accrual accounting financial statement that discusses these obligations is prepared by the General Accounting Office each year, but does not seem to be available yet for 2006. When the administration trumps its $248 billion deficit number, it acts like a CEO telling everybody the great results given by cash accounting, but burying the accrual accounting numbers in the financial statements. The five year horizon for balancing the cash accounting budget is by most measures purely aspirational. An accrual accounting projection makes this downright fantasy absent radical changes in spending or the economy. Mr. Rattner points out that Social Security was properly accounted for until 1968, when President Johnson started treating current receipts from workers as if they were normal tax revenues instead of contributions to a trust fund. In trumping the fiscal soundness of his budget, President Bush neglects to mention the trillions that would need to be set aside today to cover future entitlements. Sarbanes-Oxley, like a host of other securities law requirements, was passed in the wake of financial catastrophe and sought to restore investor confidence in America's capital markets. In signing the bill, president Bush said "the only fair risks are based on honest information. Tricking an investor into taking a risk is theft by another name." Taxpayers very much are investors in the United States. It is time they were given the honest information. ]]> http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/03/is_the_federal_government_viol.php http://www.hlsdemocrats.com/a/2007/03/is_the_federal_government_viol.php Blog Mon, 05 Mar 2007 11:50:18 -0500